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Consumer Confidence Strength Sees Re-Widening To U.Mich Conditions

US DATA
  • Conf. Board consumer confidence was stronger than expected in Sept, rising from 103.6 to 108.0 (cons 104.5) to highs since April with gains in both the present situation and expectations indices.
  • Combined with a more muted climb in U.Mich current conditions, it re-opens the gap between the two closer to June’s record and is indicative of a broadening in differences between labor market conditions (Conf Board) and those arising from inflation/broader business conditions (U.Mich) - see chart.
  • This historically wide gap no longer indicates a further flattening in 2s10s after it closed the gap earlier in the year but nevertheless lends support to current slopes.

Conf Board present situation (yellow), U.Mich current conditions (white), gap (green) and 2s10s (pink)Source: Bloomberg



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  • Conf. Board consumer confidence was stronger than expected in Sept, rising from 103.6 to 108.0 (cons 104.5) to highs since April with gains in both the present situation and expectations indices.
  • Combined with a more muted climb in U.Mich current conditions, it re-opens the gap between the two closer to June’s record and is indicative of a broadening in differences between labor market conditions (Conf Board) and those arising from inflation/broader business conditions (U.Mich) - see chart.
  • This historically wide gap no longer indicates a further flattening in 2s10s after it closed the gap earlier in the year but nevertheless lends support to current slopes.

Conf Board present situation (yellow), U.Mich current conditions (white), gap (green) and 2s10s (pink)Source: Bloomberg