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Contained Start Ahead Of BoE, Market Pricing 1/3 Chance Of 50bp Hike

GILTS

Gilt futures initially showed above Wednesday’s late levels before fading back below to print -10 or so at typing, while cash Gilts run 0.5bp richer to 0.5bp cheaper, twist steepening at the margin.

  • Local news flow has been light, leaving domestic focus squarely on the impending BoE decision.
  • Much of the debate remains centred on the difference between what peopled believe the Bank should do. vs. what they think it will do.
  • All of the 40 surveyed by BBG look for a 25bp step from the Bank today.
  • The market remains more aggressive in the wake of the recent labour market and CPI data, showing ~34bp of tightening for the event, shy of yesterday’s hawkish extremes which briefly indicated an even chance of a 50bp hike.
  • Terminal rate pricing sits just above 6.00% in BoE policy rate terms, little changed on the day.
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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