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COP Extends Winning Streak Amid Political Scandal

COLOMBIA
  • Colombian assets are outperforming once again on Tuesday with USDCOP (-1.29%) plumbing fresh near 10-month lows below 4250 and IBR swap rates are seen between 2-6bps lower across the curve.
  • As noted, analysts are picking up on the fact that reforms are likely to be watered down amid the political tension. Furthermore, the suspension of reform discussions is likely to delay Petro’s reform push even more, again demonstrating the checks and balances that are in place in Colombia, potentially bolstering the bid for domestic asset prices.
  • Scotiabank have noted that these developments reduce the risk of having significant changes in economic policy. They highlight that regional elections on October 29 are an important event on the horizon for the government. Were the government’s party to lose support, it will become even more difficult to negotiate reforms in Congress.
  • On the data front, the key release will be Wednesday’s release of May CPI where the headline rate is expected to fall to 12.58%. Many analysts believe BanRep has come to an end of its hiking cycle, and although BanRep governor Villar has acknowledged the turning point for inflation, he has said the bank cannot yet assure the tightening cycle is over. The next BanRep decision is due on June 30.
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