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Core CPI Expected to Hit 4% in May

POLAND
  • NBP Glanpinksi maintained a dovish tone during online press conference on Friday, confirming that it is still way too early to start policy normalization as the uncertainty over polish economic recovery remains elevated.
  • Polish inflation is currently driven only by supply shocks and 'all forecasts' are now predicting CPI inflation to start falling in 2022; July CPI projections will be key for monetary policy outlook.
  • Poland GDP growth could top 10% YoY according to NBP projections.• Glapinski added that NBP will have to end QE when raising interest rates and confirmed that the central bank loose monetary policy has no pro-inflationary impact.
  • This morning, MPC member Eryk Lon said that it is safer to wait for policy central bank November projections to decide about the policy outlook.
  • Other policymaker Jerzy Kropiwnicki said in an interview on Biznes24 that the NBP will have a better view of the Polish economy in September, which implies that the NBP will keep interest rates steady until at least the end of Q3 2020, unless the summer inflation projections are significantly reviewed to the upside.
  • Next important economic data to watch is Core CPI (June 16), which is expected to increase to 4% in May (from 3.9% the previous month).
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