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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CANADA
- Headline CPI printed as expected at 3.1% Y/Y in October but with a modestly softer than expected 3.55% Y/Y average of trim/median down from a slightly upward revised 3.8% Y/Y in September.
- As has been the case for some months, focus should be on the three-month average of the trim/median, and the easing from 3.7% to 3.0% annualized was slightly larger than probably expected (TD, in line with consensus for headline, had pencilled in 3.2%).
- As noted in the preview, the BoC has been looking for a drop below the 3.5-4% range for some time, having got stuck in this range since Aug’22, with this reading marking the lowest since Mar’21 for also its first time back at the very upper of the 1-3% target range.
- Other traditional core measures also saw some degree of moderation: ex food & energy eased from 3.6 to 3.3% after accelerating in recent months and ex 8 most volatile & indirect taxes from 2.4% to a particularly low 2.1% (all 3-month annualised).
- Having seen a swift rally into the release, 2Y GoC yields actually sit nearly 2bp higher since the data for still -3bps on the day, with the CAN-US yield differential still at its most negative since March at -51bps.
- Similarly, USDCAD has seen little reaction, with USDCAD dipping 15 pips on the release before retracing half of it, potentially a sign that the sizeable CAD underperformance this week was overdone.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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