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Core PCE Inflation Pencilled In For A ‘Low’ 0.3% M/M

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Post CPI and before tomorrow’s PPI, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley on average pencil in core PCE of 0.265% M/M in April after 0.28% M/M (JPM 0.23, MS 0.30).
  • Wrightson ICAP is possibly in the same ballpark, still looking for 0.3% to 1dp for core after revising down their headline PCE estimate from 0.4 to 0.3% post-CPI.
  • MS go a step further and note that whilst core services ex-housing in CPI slowed to 0.11% M/M for its slowest print since Jul’22, they estimate PCE core services ex housing to have increased from 0.24% to 0.28% M/M.

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