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Core Services Inflation Picks Up In September

US DATA

Looking at services inflation - September data includes strong readings in shelter: 0.56% M/M owner equivalent rent (from 0.38% prior and highest since Feb), with primary rents ticking slightly higher to 0.49% from 0.48%. Both of those were above-expected. That meant OER+rents contributed more than 0.18pp to overall inflation.

  • Overall core services rose +0.57% M/M, from 0.39% last month - again a post-Feb high.
  • Core services excl OER & primary rents: 0.611% M/M after 0.366%. That's the highest print since Sept 2022. Latest 3mth av of 0.39%.
  • Major contributors: hotels (+3.7% M/M from -3.0% prior, adding 0.04pp to inflation alone, vs -0.04pp last month)), medical care services (+0.3% from +0.1%). Offset by airfares +0.3% from +4.9% prior.
  • None of those are big surprises vs expectations though the overall print is on the high side of expectations.

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