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Pullback Considered Corrective


Holding Above Recent Lows


BLOCK, Large 3Y Midcurve Put Condor

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Spot USD/IDR trades at IDR14,495, slightly higher on the day. The rupiah is among the worst performers in Asia EM space, with only the baht faring worse. Should USD/IDR manage to break above Jul 21/2 highs of IDR14,559/14,568, bulls could take aim at IDR14,633-14,635, which capped gains on Apr 13 - 15. Bears look for a dip through Jul 13 low of IDR14,462, which would expose Jun 28 low of IDR14,415.

  • USD/IDR 1-month NDF last seen +20 figs at IDR14,551. Bulls look for a clearance of Jul 20 high of IDR14,676, while bears would be pleased by a retreat under Jul 16 low/100-DMA at IDR14,487/14,484.
  • Although Indonesia's daily Covid-19 cases eased further, the death toll continues to climb. The local press flagged concerns surrounding Indonesia's reporting and counting methods, with Jakarta Post noting that "the government [does not include] deaths outside of healthcare facilities in its daily official tally".
  • The IMF downgraded its 2021 growth forecast for Indonesia to +3.9% Y/Y from +4.3% projected in April, as the spread of the Delta variant is expected to weigh on economic recovery.