NORWAY
NOK saw an initial gap weaker as CPI-ATE comes in -0.4pp lower than conensus in January at 4.9% Y/Y (vs 5.3% cons and prior). The Norges Bank had forecasted 5.5% Y/Y, but this was from the December MPR which is at this point a stale forecast.
- However, EURNOK and NOKSEK are now back at pre-data levels. With core goods and services CPI-ATE still above 5% Y/Y, this won't be enough to change the Norges Bank's "higher for longer" stance ahead of the next meeting on March 21.
- Food and alcoholic beverages fell --0.6% M/M - most analyst previews we had read looked for a small NSA M/M rise around -0.4-0.6% M/M.
- This helped the annual rate on food fall to 6.3% Y/Y (vs 8.7% prior), explaning a large amount of the CPI-ATE miss.
- Despite this, core goods prices (including food) were steady at 5.1% Y/Y, likely as clothing and footwear CPI-ATE (a notably volatile category in February prints) accelerated to 6.9% Y/Y (vs 4.1% prior).
- Services ex-rent moderated to 5.0% Y/Y (vs 6.2% prior), aided by a deceleration in restuarants and hotels to 3.7% Y/Y (vs 6.3% prior) but offset somewhat by an acceleration of recreation and culture (8.5% Y/Y vs 7.2% prior).
- Headline CPI was also below consensus at 4.5% Y/Y (vs 4.7% cons, 5.3% Norges Bank and 4.7% prior).
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