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CPI Inflation to Average 4.2% in 2021 According To NBP Summer Projections

POLAND
  • NBP Governor Adam Glapinski spoke at a press conference on Friday and confirmed that inflation is currently driven by supply shocks and he sees no risk of overheating in Poland. While Polish inflation is expected to remain above the 3.5% NBP upper tolerance band for the rest of the year, its is expected to decline towards 2.5% in 2022.
  • Yesterday, the NBP published its new summary of economic forecast; while CPI is expected to average 4.2% in 2021, it will then fall below the 3.5% NBP upper tolerance in 2022 (3.3%) and 2023 (3.4%).
  • Earlier this morning, MPC member Grażyna Ancyparowicz commented on Biznes24 TV that NBP board is polarized over how to tackle inflation.
  • Important economic data to watch this week will be the May current account balance coming out on July 14 and core CPI on June 16.

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