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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CANADA
- The CPI report for September lands at 0830ET today and is the last major release before next week’s BoC decision.
- Any upside surprise, especially in underlying areas, could see markets more firmly consider a hike considering the strength in the labor report two weeks ago (currently a little under 50% priced).
- Last month’s CPI report, which also landed after the Sep BoC decision, was surprisingly strong.
- Headline accelerated from 3.3% to 4.0% Y/Y (then consensus 3.8), where it’s seen staying this month albeit with analysts ranging from 3.8-4.2%. The MPR from July, due for an update next week, had pencilled in CPI inflation at just 3.3% Y/Y in Q3 before 2.9% in Q4.
- More notably, the average of trim and median lurched from 3.5% to 4.5% annualized on a 3-month rolling basis. It meant a trend rate above the 3.5-4% seen in all but one month since Aug’22, with no further progress below that range something the BoC had previously started to become more concerned about.
- For today’s data, the median analyst sees the trim and median slowing a tenth to 3.9% Y/Y, with TD in line with this view which they see as being equivalent to 4.2% annualized on that same 3-month basis (of course barring revisions).
- Whilst these are the BoC’s preferred measures, it’s worth noting that more traditional measures of core CPI have been running at slightly lower trend rates despite also accelerating in Aug, with ex food & energy at 3.6% annualized and ex 8 most volatile and indirect taxes at 3.2% annualized.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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