CPI to Print Fresh 6Y High at 9.20%, but Should Surge Further on Delayed Sanctions Impact

Data:

• 1300GMT: Feb Official Reserves exp at $625bn vs 630.2bn
• 1600GMT: Feb CPI m/m exp at 1.20% vs 0.99% prior
• 1600GMT: Feb CPI y/y exp at 9.20% vs 8.73% prior
• 1600GMT: Feb CPI Core y/y exp at 9.90% vs 9.24% prior
• 1600GMT: Feb CPI Core m/m exp at 1.10% vs 0.82% prior
• 1600GMT: Mar 4 CPI wow, 0.45% prior
• 1600GMT: Mar 4 CPI Weekly YTD, 1.99%
  
  NOTE: This CPI print is somewhat unimportant due to the impending surge in inflation that is likely to result from Western sanctions and a dramatically weaker RUB in the coming months. Nevertheless, February sees a fresh 6-year high, with CPI projected to accelerate to +9.2% y/y, up from +8.73% y/y in January.
• This implies inflation is at over twice the policy target rate of 4%. Food prices remain a key upward driver of Russian inflation, having grown over 11% y/y in January. Unlike much of the current global experience, core CPI is projected to continue to outpace headline CPI, with analysts pricing a 0.66% uptick to +9.90% y/y in February.