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CPI to Print Fresh 6Y High at 9.20%, but Should Surge Further on Delayed Sanctions Impact



  • 1300GMT: Feb Official Reserves exp at $625bn vs 630.2bn
  • 1600GMT: Feb CPI m/m exp at 1.20% vs 0.99% prior
  • 1600GMT: Feb CPI y/y exp at 9.20% vs 8.73% prior
  • 1600GMT: Feb CPI Core y/y exp at 9.90% vs 9.24% prior
  • 1600GMT: Feb CPI Core m/m exp at 1.10% vs 0.82% prior
  • 1600GMT: Mar 4 CPI wow, 0.45% prior
  • 1600GMT: Mar 4 CPI Weekly YTD, 1.99%

    NOTE: This CPI print is somewhat unimportant due to the impending surge in inflation that is likely to result from Western sanctions and a dramatically weaker RUB in the coming months. Nevertheless, February sees a fresh 6-year high, with CPI projected to accelerate to +9.2% y/y, up from +8.73% y/y in January.
  • This implies inflation is at over twice the policy target rate of 4%. Food prices remain a key upward driver of Russian inflation, having grown over 11% y/y in January. Unlike much of the current global experience, core CPI is projected to continue to outpace headline CPI, with analysts pricing a 0.66% uptick to +9.90% y/y in February.
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |

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