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Cranking Out Higher Yields

US EURODLR FUTURES
  • Eurodollars are led 5 ticks lower today by both EDU2 and then mid-greens onwards, largely preserving the shape of the curve rather than driving any further inversion on the day.
  • That said the curve remains solidly inverted, with implied yields peaking at 2.99% in the M3 contract (up 26.5bp from after last week’s FOMC) before pricing 26bp of cuts through EDM3-EDM4 and then a further 23bp of cuts through EDM4-EDM5.
  • Little reaction to NY Fed’s Williams earlier but Daly (2024 voter) at 1400ET and Mester (2022) at 1700ET ahead.
  • Whilst a non-voter, watch to see if Daly firms on guidance from last month that a 50bp increase is possible at some point. Also watch if Mester joins Waller in saying the FOMC should consider 50bp increases at the next couple meetings (with 83bps priced for June).


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