Crude Assessing OPEC+ Meeting Delay After Volatile Trading Yesterday

Crude markets are holding a bearish tone again today after volatile trading yesterday saw front month Brent fall to a low of nearly 78.4$/bbl before recovering late in the day. Crude recouped most of the earlier losses after delay to the OPEC+ ministerial meeting amid disagreement on output assessment from African nations while another US crude inventory build adds to the downside pressure on prices.

• Brent JAN 24 down -0.8% at 81.27$/bbl
• WTI JAN 24 down -0.7% at 76.57$/bbl
• Gasoil DEC 23 up 0.1% at 822.5$/mt
• WTI-Brent up 0.16$/bbl at -4.69$/bbl
• Nigeria and Angola are fighting the adjustment of the OPEC crude output quotas that led to a delay of the OPEC+ meeting, despite not meeting current output targets according to OPEC secondary sources and market sources. Despite the delay, the market is still likely expecting Saudi to extend voluntary cuts in next year.
• Crude inventories rose 8.7mbbls to the highest since July supported by a slight dip in exports and higher imports while production held up at record levels again.
• Trading volumes may be lower today amid the US Thanksgiving holiday.
  • Brent JAN 24-FEB 24 up 0.03$/bbl at 0.11$/bbl
  • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 down -0.09$/bbl at 1.94$/bbl
• Crude time spreads are also holding steady today after the Brent prompt spread moved back into small backwardation yesterday, but WTI remains in contango suggesting a looser near term balance.
• US diesel cracks are trading lower after are seeing some support with another US stock draw to the lowest since May 2022 while gasoline is seeing downside pressure due to a fresh decline in implied demand to halt the recovery seen over the previous few weeks.
  • US gasoline crack down -0.1$/bbl at 15.07$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down -0.3$/bbl at 40.24$/bbl