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Free AccessCrude Backwardation Steepest Since November on Market Deficit Concern
Crude oil remains stable today with future and spread prices edging higher as the market assess the impact of the announced 1.66m OPEC production cuts (including Russia). Many analysts suggest the OPEC cuts will increase the expected market deficit in the second half of this year. Market uncertainty is driven by recession risks and global oil demand concerns, future Russian output and the China demand recovery.
- The OPEC cuts are voluntary leaving uncertainty over the actual reduction in export volumes, however the countries that have announced these additional cuts have a strong compliance track record. Russia’s planned crude output cut of 500kbpd since March has had little impact on its exports so far with crude production only down 300kbpd in early March according to Reuters.
- Crude backwardation is the steepest this year with the Dec23-Dec24 spread trading at the highest since November.
- Brent JUN 23 up 0.9% at 85.66$/bbl
- WTI MAY 23 up 0.9% at 81.15$/bbl
- Brent JUN 23-JUL 23 up 0.06$/bbl at 0.44$/bbl
- Brent JUN 23-DEC 23 up 0.12$/bbl at 3.55$/bbl
- Brent DEC 23-DEC 24 up 0.23$/bbl at 5.79$/bbl
Source: Bloomberg
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.