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Free AccessCrude Call-Put Spread Back to Parity on Short Term Supply Risk
Brent second month 25-delta skew is hovering near parity after showing a skew slightly in favour of the calls over the last couple of days. The WTI skew is also at parity for the first time since June. Near term supply risks have driven call vols back up from a spread low in mid August. The OPEC+ target production cuts in November and December and the upcoming sanctions on Russian crude are supporting crude prices.
- The longer dated Brent Dec23 call-put skew is currently trading at -6.3%. Puts are at a premium with downside risks due to the economic demand concerns for next year. The OPEC target production cut shows the group’s willingness to react to lower demand and has brought the skew in from nearly -9% at the start of October. The WTI Dec23 skew is currently at -7.3% from a low near -10%.
- ATM implied volatility is just below 50% with high uncertainty over both supply and demand adding to market price swings.
Source: Bloomberg
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.