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Crude Continues Climbing On Positive Industrial Data & Middle East Tensions

OIL

WTI crude has risen a further 0.5% to $84.10/bbl during APAC trading after increasing 1% on Monday. It’s at its highest level since September last year. Brent is up 0.5% to $87.82/bbl. Oil prices have been supported this week by stronger-than-expected China PMIs, higher US manufacturing ISM, and an escalation in Middle East tensions. Mexico has also said it will cut back on crude exports. The USD index is flat.

  • With WTI now up 16.6% this year, central banks will be looking closely for signs that higher fuel costs are feeding into other prices before cutting rates. Second-round effects from rising oil prices, which would result if demand is still robust, would likely delay easing cycles.
  • Iran has accused Israel of bombing its embassy in Damascus killing a senior military official. Conflicts in the Middle East over the last six months have not threatened oil supplies but the market has remained alert to risks that Iran becomes directly involved and impacts its crude flows. There have also been more altercations off Yemen.
  • On Wednesday OPEC+ will meet online but no change is expected as members said current quotas were appropriate. A decision on whether to extend the cuts into Q3 is likely to be made in early June.
  • Later the Fed’s Bowman, Williams, Mester and Daly appear. In terms of data, there are US JOLTS February job openings, final February durable orders, European March manufacturing PMIs and German preliminary March CPI.
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WTI crude has risen a further 0.5% to $84.10/bbl during APAC trading after increasing 1% on Monday. It’s at its highest level since September last year. Brent is up 0.5% to $87.82/bbl. Oil prices have been supported this week by stronger-than-expected China PMIs, higher US manufacturing ISM, and an escalation in Middle East tensions. Mexico has also said it will cut back on crude exports. The USD index is flat.

  • With WTI now up 16.6% this year, central banks will be looking closely for signs that higher fuel costs are feeding into other prices before cutting rates. Second-round effects from rising oil prices, which would result if demand is still robust, would likely delay easing cycles.
  • Iran has accused Israel of bombing its embassy in Damascus killing a senior military official. Conflicts in the Middle East over the last six months have not threatened oil supplies but the market has remained alert to risks that Iran becomes directly involved and impacts its crude flows. There have also been more altercations off Yemen.
  • On Wednesday OPEC+ will meet online but no change is expected as members said current quotas were appropriate. A decision on whether to extend the cuts into Q3 is likely to be made in early June.
  • Later the Fed’s Bowman, Williams, Mester and Daly appear. In terms of data, there are US JOLTS February job openings, final February durable orders, European March manufacturing PMIs and German preliminary March CPI.