Crude Down As Supply Fears Ease And Demand Fears Grow

Oil prices have started the week down with WTI -0.2% to $77.82/bbl and Brent is $81.64. They rose around a percent on Friday as the USD couldn’t hold onto its post-PMI highs and finished 0.1% lower on the day. Crude fell over 5% on the week and is close to pre-OPEC decision levels in late March, as supply concerns eased and demand worries resurfaced.

• Resistance for WTI is at $81.24, the April 19 high, and on the downside support is $75.83, the March 31 high. It is now below its 200-day average but holding just above the 100-day. Support for Brent is at $79.95 and resistance $85.15, the April 19 high. Brent is holding just above the 50-day moving average but is now below both the 100- and 200-day.
• The supply outlook improved with Russian exports rising to above 3mbd last week and an agreement on shipments from Iraqi Kurdistan being formed. There are also signs that global demand for distillate and gasoline is slowing with Asian refiners looking to cut back production.
• According to Bloomberg, in the week ending April 18 long hedge fund positions in WTI rose to a 5-month high.