Crude Edges Higher But Holding in Weekly Range

Crude is edging up today as the market holds between about 75$/bbl and 77.5$/bbl this week. The market continues to assess demand uncertainty with an improved risk environment as the US Fed is potentially nearing a pause in rate hikes and data suggesting a potentially slower pace of recovery in China. Tighter supplies are providing upside support with OPEC production cuts and disruption to output from Kurdistan and Canada although Russian supply still seems stronger than expected.

• Brent JUL 23 up 0.7% at 76.98$/bbl
• WTI JUN 23 up 0.7% at 73.09$/bbl
• Gasoil JUN 23 up 0.5% at 696.25$/mt
• WTI-Brent down -0.02$/bbl at -3.91$/bbl
• Slightly improved implied product demand in EIA data yesterday has also helped provide some support with low Cushing stocks still providing support to WTI.
• Crude is holding narrow backwardation reflecting the lower global supplies are offset by downside pressure from US recessionary concerns and weaker global oil demand growth. The Jul-Aug Brent spread is holding just above the lows of 0.12$/bbl from last week. The Dec23-Dec24 Brent spread is slightly stronger than the prompt but still near the lower end of the range seen so far this year.
  • Brent JUL 23-AUG 23 up 0.03$/bbl at 0.17$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 23-DEC 24 up 0.13$/bbl at 2.96$/bbl
• Diesel cracks spreads continue to slowly recover this month supported by low inventory levels and the risk that low margins could lead to refinery run cuts. Gasoline cracks are also higher, but demand is not yet seeing the normal seasonal boost heading into the US summer driving season.
  • US gasoline crack up 0.1$/bbl at 32.13$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack up 0.2$/bbl at 28.02$/bbl