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Crude Edging Higher After Fall on Economic Growth Fears


Crude is ticking higher this morning as tight supplies remain supportive despite the trend for the month which has seen a gradual fall in crude due to economic slowdown concerns.

  • WTI is up more than Brent after falling further during US trading hours yesterday. The WTI-Brent spread fell as wide as -8$/bbl yesterday but has since closed back to -7.5$/bbl.
    • Brent DEC 22 up 0.1% at 90.16$/bbl
    • WTI NOV 22 up 0.7% at 83.42$/bbl
    • Gasoil NOV 22 down -0.2% at 1102.25$/mt
    • WTI-Brent up 0.25$/bbl at -7.54$/bbl
  • Supplies could become tighter later this year and into next due to the potential for lower output from Russia. The EU ban on seaborne Russian crude and G7 price cap plan may restrict the buyers of Russian barrels. Two refiners in India have paused Russian crude deliveries for arrival after the ban due to concerns over shipping and making payments.
    • Brent DEC 22-JAN 23 up 0.01$/bbl at 1.44$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 22-DEC 23 up 0.31$/bbl at 10.38$/bbl
  • The delayed return of Kashagan to full output by up to six weeks into November or possibly December adds to the tight market. Time spreads have eased back slightly over the last week, but the curve remains in strong backwardation.
    • US 321 crack down -0.1$/bbl at 44.08$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down -0.1$/bbl at 24.25$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down -0.1$/bbl at 83.83$/bbl
  • Ongoing French strikes and wider diesel supply concerns are driving Gasoil time spreads and crack spreads higher. Diesel supplies remain especially tight due to refinery outages, low inventory levels, winter heating demand and future uncertainty over Russia supplies.

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