Crude Extends Pull Back Amid USD Strength

Crude futures and spreads extend a pull back today amid strength in the US dollar ahead of the US Fed rate decision later today.

• Rates are widely expected to remain unchanged this month but concerns that rate cuts will be delayed and could pressure demand have weighed on crude. The current analyst expectation is for a June starting point for rate cuts.
• Time spreads are following the front month futures lower but are still up on the week with concern for a potential market deficit due to OPEC+ cuts and improved global demand and with an increase geopolitical risk premium from attacks on Russia energy infrastructure.
• Focus is also on EIA petroleum data due later today which is expected to show another small crude draw according to Bloomberg.
• Technicals show a bull cycle remains intact with first Brent resistance at 87.18$/bbl and support at 83.55$/bbl.
  • Brent MAY 24 down 1% at 86.51$/bbl
  • WTI MAY 24 down 1.1% at 81.81$/bbl
  • WTI-Brent down 0.05$/bbl at -4.7$/bbl
  • Brent MAY 24-JUN 24 down 0.09$/bbl at 0.67$/bbl
  • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 down 0.3$/bbl at 4.15$/bbl
  • WTI MAY 24-JUN 24 down 0.1$/bbl at 0.55$/bbl
  • WTI JUN 24-DEC 24 down 0.3$/bbl at 4.22$/bbl