Crude Falls Amid Easing Risk of Iranian Supply Disruption

Crude markets extend earlier decline helped by a NY times report that multiple pieces of intelligence show that key Iranian leaders were surprised by the Hamas attack in Israel. The information has fuelled US doubts that Iran played a direct role in planning the assault, according to several American officials. (NYT) https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/11/us/politics/iran-israel-gaza-hamas-us-intelligence.html

• Front month crude has reversed much of the gains seen from the start of the week with the reduced risk of disruption to Iranian supplies.
• Prompt and longer term time spreads are following the move lower back to at or below levels from late last week.
• The WTI-Brent spread has fallen to the lowest this month after reaching a peak of -3.12$/bbl last week.
  • Brent DEC 23 down -2.2% at 85.71$/bbl
  • WTI NOV 23 down -2.7% at 83.61$/bbl
  • WTI-Brent down -0.04$/bbl at -3.61$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 23-JAN 24 down -0.24$/bbl at 1.18$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 23-DEC 24 down -1.03$/bbl at 6.56$/bbl