Crude Holding on to Weekly Gains

Crude is edging lowering this morning after pushing higher throughout the day yesterday on updated demand forecasts and an outage to six Gulf of Mexico fields. Recovery in implied demand in EIA weekly petroleum data on Wednesday also added support to the market

• Brent OCT 22 down -0.3% at 99.28$/bbl
• WTI SEP 22 down -0.4% at 93.95$/bbl
• Gasoil SEP 22 up 1% at 1030$/mt
• WTI-Brent unchanged at -6.1$/bbl
• IEA revised oil demand estimates higher by 380kbpd in part due to gas to oil switching although the OPEC forecast later in the day estimated a 260kbpd fall in demand. IEA also highlighted the limited spare OPEC+ capacity and potential for further supply disruption from Russia.
• Six oil and gas fields in the Gulf of Mexico were shut due to leak impacting two pipelines. Shell are expecting the resumption of the service on Friday.
  • Brent OCT 22-NOV 22 unchanged at 1.3$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 22-DEC 23 unchanged at 8.4$/bbl
• Crude time spreads have stabilized or even recovered slightly after steadily falling on easing supply tightness in recent weeks. The longer dated Dec-Dec spread especially followed the flat price move higher during the day yesterday.
  • US 321 crack up 0.2$/bbl at 40.49$/bbl
  • US gasoline crack up 0.5$/bbl at 34.81$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down -0.6$/bbl at 51.87$/bbl
• Gasoline and diesel cracks have both recovered ground this week with a pick up in EIA demand and the possibility that lower US pump prices will support demand for the remainder of the summer driving season. Supplies and inventories of the refined products remains tight with limited spare refining capacity.