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Crude Oil Clears 20-day EMAs As Demand Firms

COMMODITIES
  • Crude oil has gained strongly today with rising oil demand and some potential carry-over in risk on sentiment from yesterday’s softer US CPI inflation, before some late US supply disruption.
  • OPEC sees global oil demand rising 3.1mbpd in 2022 (a decrease of -260kbpd from previous forecast) vs the IEA seeing a 2.1mbpd increase (+380k from previous) and Goldman see crude oil demand increasing from here with Brent forecast at $130/bbl by year-end and gasoline above $5.
  • Brief pop higher and then quick retracement on news of a leak at the Fourchon booster station in Louisiana pushing Shell to shut its Mars, Ursa and Olympus oil & gas fields as well as Mars and Amberjack pipelines in the Gulf of Mexico, followed by Chevron also shutting some oil fields.
  • WTI is +2.7% at $94.35 having earlier cleared the 20-day EMA at $94.40, next opening the 50-day EMA at $98.12. Strong price gains elicit some protection taken out with the most active strikes of the day in the CLU2 at $85/bbl puts.
  • Brent is +2.3% at $99.62 having cleared the 20-day EMA at $99.12, next opening the 50-day EMA at $101.79.
  • Gold is -0.24% at $1787.84 after a mixed session, moving lower as Tsy yields ultimately moved higher but with moves limited by a weaker dollar. It has cleared trendline resistance of $1794.6 in recent days before pulling back, leaving resistance next eyed at the bull trigger of $1807.9 (Aug 10 high) and key short-term support at $1754.4 (Aug 3 low).
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