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Crude Rally Short Lived, Prices Down Again Today


Oil prices have trended down through the APAC session and are almost a percent lower today after rising over 2% on Friday as demand worries drive market moves. WTI is down to $76.43/bbl, close to the intraday low of $76.41. Brent fell below $81 to $80.65, also around the low. The USD index is slightly higher.

  • This week the monthly reports from OPEC (Monday) and the IEA (Tuesday) will be published and will be important for gauging the demand outlook which the market is currently focussed on. Supply trends are also important with data showing increased OPEC+ output in October. The US also looks to be increasing production.
  • Goldman Sachs has cut its 2024 Brent forecast to $92 from $98 due to stronger supply, according to Bloomberg, while it expects demand to remain robust.
  • Later the Fed’s Cook gives some introductory remarks. There is little on the data front with only NY Fed inflation expectations and the US monthly budget data. The ECB’s de Guindos speaks and updated European Commission forecasts are due. The focus of the week is likely to be US CPI on Tuesday, which should be important for the Fed outlook, and then there’s a swathe of China activity data on Wednesday.

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