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Crude Spreads Follow Gains in Flat Price on Middle East Risks


Crude futures and time spreads are gaining ground today as the Middle East risk premium increases following headlines from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei for Muslim countries to stop oil exports to Israel.

  • Global demand is also in focus with the US Fed widely expected to leave rates on hold later today and after disappointing China PMI data amid concern for a weakening economic recovery in China and calls for more policy support.
  • The Brent Jun24-Dec24 spread has rallied from around 2.2$/bbl up to 2.5$/bbl to reverse the decline from yesterday but still down from the peak of over 3.4$/bbl seen on 20 October.
  • Brent Jan24 technicals suggest the broader trend condition remains bullish and recent short-term weakness still appears to be a correction with moving average studies in a bull-mode position. Key support lies at the Oct 6 low of 82.20$/bbl and first resistance at the Oct 20 high of 89.49$/bbl.
    • Brent JAN 24 up 2.1% at 86.77$/bbl
    • WTI DEC 23 up 2.2% at 82.8$/bbl
    • Brent JAN 24-FEB 24 up 0.13$/bbl at 0.7$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 up 0.27$/bbl at 2.51$/bbl
    • WTI DEC 23-JAN 24 up 0.02$/bbl at 0.54$/bbl
    • WTI JAN 24-FEB 24 up 0.1$/bbl at 0.64$/bbl
    • WTI DEC 23-DEC 24 up 0.75$/bbl at 6.08$/bbl

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