Crude Steady After Fall on Demand Growth Forecasts

Crude markets are steady today after falling 2$/bbl yesterday following the downward revision to the OPEC demand forecasts for 2022 and 2023 in their monthly oil report.

• Brent DEC 22 down 0% at 92.41$/bbl
• WTI NOV 22 down -0.2% at 87.13$/bbl
• Gasoil NOV 22 down -0.9% at 1092.25$/mt
• WTI-Brent unchanged at -6.52$/bbl
• OPEC reduced 2022 oil demand growth forecast by 460kbpd and the 2023 growth forecast by 350kbpd giving support to last week’s OPEC+ decision to cut production for November and December. The revision was driven by uncertainty in global economic growth on deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, persisting supply chain issues, geopolitical risks and covid lockdowns.
• The Brent price rallied 15% on the OPEC+ cut but has now receded back 5% due to demand fears. The moves in time spreads have been more muted with strong backwardation maintained on tight global supplies.
  • Brent DEC 22-JAN 23 down -0.02$/bbl at 1.61$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 22-DEC 23 unchanged at 12.23$/bbl
• Diesel crack spreads are following the economic sentiment driving the crude markets although are also supported by the tighter product markets. Refinery outages remain high due to maintenance and extra offline capacity such as BP Toledo and due to the French refinery strikes. Spreads are just slightly down from the close today ahead of the EIA data later and after API data showed build in crude and gasoline and draw in distillates.
  • US 321 crack down -0.6$/bbl at 40.42$/bbl
  • US gasoline crack down -0.6$/bbl at 22.63$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down -1.1$/bbl at 76.19$/bbl