Crude Subdued On Demand Worries & Soft Risk Sentiment

Oil prices are only moderately higher today after falling over 3.5% on Tuesday/Wednesday as softer risk appetite is capping gains. WTI is up 0.2% to $74.69/bbl, after a high of $74.83, and Brent is also 0.2% higher at $77.71 following a peak of $77.86. Markets have become focussed on the cyclical and structural demand outlook for crude and are less worried about geopolitics, although the latter can still drive volatility. The October 2 OPEC decision is also making participants nervous. The USD index is down 0.1% today.

• The EIA reported a US crude drawdown of 846k barrels last week, which was larger than expected. There has been a build in only one week since the start of July. Gasoline stocks fell 2.2mn but distillate rose 275k. The data continue to point to robust US demand.
• Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have cut their 2025 crude forecasts due to soft demand from China related to the economy but also the switch to EVs, according to Bloomberg. It is the world’s largest oil importer. These trends are also likely to impact European demand.
• A Bloomberg survey found that the majority of respondents believe that China won’t achieve its 2024 growth target of 5%. Another poll showed that analysts are split on whether OPEC will reduce its output cuts as planned from October.
• Later the Fed’s Bostic and ECB’s Lane speak. US revised Q2 GDP, July trade & inventories and jobless claims print, as well as the European Commission survey for August.