Crude Unchanged With Demand Uncertainty Weighed Against Supply Disruptions

Crude markets are unchanged from the previous close as the market weighs up recent near term supply disruption and Chinese growth optimism against economic growth uncertainty and robust Russian supplies.

• Brent APR 23 down -0.1% at 84.4$/bbl
• WTI MAR 23 down -0.3% at 77.86$/bbl
• Gasoil MAR 23 down -0.1% at 815.5$/mt
• WTI-Brent up 0.03$/bbl at -6.33$/bbl
• Supply disruptions in Turkey, Norway, Kazakhstan, and Black Sea have provided support this week but the return of Norway’s Johan Sverdrup Phase 1 field has eased some of this pressure.
• A reduction in oil supplies due to the EU ban on Russian crude has not materialised as anticipated but any impact due to the recent oil product ban is still an upside risk
  • Brent APR 23-MAY 23 up 0.01$/bbl at 0.45$/bbl
  • Brent JUN 23-DEC 23 up 0.01$/bbl at 2.96$/bbl
• The crude prompt spreads are climbing with Brent up to the highest since November. The WTI prompt spread is the highest since 3 Jan but is still in negative territory weighed down by weak US demand. Longer term spreads are holding steady and following the moves in the futures.
• The diesel crack spreads and near term Gasoil time spreads are extending the declining trend due to weak demand, building distillate storage levels and reducing concern for tight supply due to higher than expected Russian output. ARA Gasoil inventories were yesterday reported up above the five year average for the first time since Jul 2021 boosted by supplies from Middle East, US, China and Russia before the EU ban.
  • US gasoline crack down -0.2$/bbl at 24.55$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down -0.4$/bbl at 40.44$/bbl