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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
The University of Virginia Center for Politics has published its first Sabato's Crystal Ball electoral college ratings for the 2024 presidential election. The article points to an open race, with the Democrats holding 260 electoral college votes in the likely/leaning column, while the GOP has 235 EC votes likely/leaning its way. With 270 EC votes required to guarantee the presidency, this leaves just 43 EC votes in the 'toss up' column in four states: Georgia (16), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6). Full article here.
- According to the ratings, states that in recent history have sat as 'swing states' such as Florida and Ohio, now sit fairly comfortably within the Republican camp. However, this stands in contrast to historic GOP strongholds in Georgia and Arizona that are now too close to call.
- The article also highlights its view at present that President Biden looks on course for re-nomination as the Democratic party nominee, and that, "we see a [Republican] party that is still broadly comfortable with Trump as its nominee. Until that changes, he’s the favorite."
Map 1. Crystal Ball Electoral College rating
Source: UVA Center for Politics
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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