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Free AccessCumulative Loss of 0.9mb/d Gasoline Demand from EVs by 2030: JPM
Fully or partially electric vehicles are expected to result in a cumulative loss of 0.9mb/d in global gasoline demand by 2030 according to a JP Morgan note.
- World gasoline demand will see its first annual contraction outside of recession in 2025. Global gasoline demand to decline by 50kb/d in 2025 and 100kb/d in 2026 with electrification and efficiency gains offsetting demand increases in emerging markets.
- The trend is likely to cut cumulatively 440kb/d of US gasoline demand by 2026 but European gasoline demand is likely to stay flat through 2025 followed by a slight decline. China gasoline demand to peak in 2026 after a cumulative 80kb/d increase between 2023 and 2026.
- EVs represent 7% of the global vehicle fleet and probably reduced global gasoline demand by almost 500kb/d between 2019 and 2023.
- A total of 21.6m electrified vehicles were likely sold in 2023 accounting for 33% of total auto sales.
- “Sales of battery EVs are still rising, but the growth rate appears to be easing, losing market share to hybrids.”
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.