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Cumulative Loss of 0.9mb/d Gasoline Demand from EVs by 2030: JPM

OIL PRODUCTS

Fully or partially electric vehicles are expected to result in a cumulative loss of 0.9mb/d in global gasoline demand by 2030 according to a JP Morgan note.

  • World gasoline demand will see its first annual contraction outside of recession in 2025. Global gasoline demand to decline by 50kb/d in 2025 and 100kb/d in 2026 with electrification and efficiency gains offsetting demand increases in emerging markets.
  • The trend is likely to cut cumulatively 440kb/d of US gasoline demand by 2026 but European gasoline demand is likely to stay flat through 2025 followed by a slight decline. China gasoline demand to peak in 2026 after a cumulative 80kb/d increase between 2023 and 2026.
  • EVs represent 7% of the global vehicle fleet and probably reduced global gasoline demand by almost 500kb/d between 2019 and 2023.
  • A total of 21.6m electrified vehicles were likely sold in 2023 accounting for 33% of total auto sales.
  • “Sales of battery EVs are still rising, but the growth rate appears to be easing, losing market share to hybrids.”

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