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Cunliffe due to speak at 16:05BST / 11:05ET

BOE
  • Cunliffe is due to be live interviewed by the WSJ at 16:05BST. The event page said that the Deputy Governor will discuss "cryptocurrencies, the shifts we’ve seen in financial systems over the past year and the impact of political instability in Europe on the global economy."
  • Given this, we're not sure he will discuss monpol (the topic of conversation is quite open to him steering the conversation towards regulation / financial stability etc).
  • If he does talk monpol, the most interesting thing would be if he confirms whether he's one of the 2 members who dissented to the forward guidance and if he thinks enough has been done on Bank Rate.
  • The MNI Markets team suspects it's Cunliffe and Tenreyro who didn't want to sign up to the "further degree of tightening" language.
  • We would expect Cunliffe to continue to remain on the dovish side, but not to rule anything out at upcoming meetings (other than maybe rule out him voting for 50bp).
  • If he is more hawkish, it may not be enough to get the market to price much more in give there is already a decent probability of 50bp priced in for the next 2-3 meets.
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