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Broad Euro Weakness Less Acute Than Past Episodes... So Far (3/3)

EUROZONE

The EER-42 Euro nominal effective exchange rate has had a bad run - down 8% from its most recent peak (Dec 2020), it has fallen to its lowest level since July 2017.

  • However, the drop has been fairly unremarkable by historical standards.
  • There have been 8 falls in the basket of 5% or more since the EUR was launched in 1999.
  • If it concluded today, the current sell-off would be just the 7th worst of those 8 (with the only milder one being the 5.5% fall between 2018 and 2020). The others in reverse chronological order:
  • Mid-2018 to Mar 2020 -5.5%
  • Mar2014 to Apr 2015 -14.9%
  • Apr 2011 to Oct 2012 -10.4%
  • Oct 2009 to Jun 2010 -13.4%
  • Mar 2008 to Oct 2008 -8.7%
  • Dec 2004 to Feb 2006 -8.9%
  • Oct 1998 to Oct 2000 -20.7% (starting from EUR inception on Jan 1 1999, it's -19.2%).

EER-42 Euro Exchange Rate And Falls From Local Peaks %Source: BBG, MNI

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