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CY Fixing - Stronger Outcome Relative To Expectations

CNH

The USD/CNY fix printed at 7.1596, versus a Bloomberg consensus of 7.1628.

  • Today's outcome is a -32pip surprise in USD/CNY terms. This is the largest downside surprise since the 18th of May.
  • Still the 5-day rolling sum of the error term only widens to -45pips, so well within ranges of the past 6 months. We would need to see a more consistent firmer bias in the CNY fixing to drive this term weaker.
  • USD/CNH has been volatile in the last bit of trade, we sit at 7.1740 currently. This is just below session highs near 7.1770. We did dip post the fixing outcome, but this was supported. Also, the 1yr and 5yr LPRs were cut by 10bps each. The consensus had been looking for a 15bps cut in the 5yr LPR but it was a close call.
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