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Czech Inflation Rises 5.8% In October

CZECHIA
  • Czech CPI inflation continued to surprised positively in October, up 5.8% YoY (vs. 5.5% exp.), up from 4.9% the previous month.
  • CZK is slightly stronger following the release, with EURCZK currently trading below the 25.20 level.
  • The pair (EURCZK) recently broke below its key support at 25.25 following CNB aggressive hike last week; next level to watch on the downside stands at 25.
  • We have seen that the CNB board has not hesitated to surprise market by raising its policy rate more than expected to curb the inflationary pressures, which are expected to remain elevated until January 2022.
  • We previously saw that the aggressive tightening cycle run by CNB has led to a sharp upside retracement in ST bond yields, which led to a yield curve (2Y10Y) inversion in the end of October, increasing the odds of recession.
  • On one hand, policymakers are raising rates aggressively to combat inflation risks; on the other hand, the yield curve continue to fall into deeper territory as the uncertainty over the economic outlook remains elevated.
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