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Czech Minority Government Survives No-confidence Vote

CZECHIA
  • Opposition parties failed to remove PM Babis from power after it was reported that only 89 of the opposition lawmakers voted (which was well below the 101 voted need in the 200-seat lower house).
  • As a reminder, opposition parties have been criticizing government over bad management of Covid crisis, failing to secure enough support for the country in the recent diplomatic spat with Russia, and PM Babis over alleged fraud involving European Union Funds (Babis denies any wrongdoing).
  • Markets have not been very sensitive to that narrative and traders have been chasing the CZK momentum in the past few weeks as CNB prepares for a tightening cycle.
  • USDCZK has been retracing higher in the past few days amid global USD strength, breaking above its 21 resistance this morning; next resistance to watch on the topside stands at 21.22, followed by 21.37 (50D SMA). On the downside, first support stands at 20.72.
  • Czech 10Y yield: after peaking at 1.98% in March, the 10Y yield has been gradually retracing lower in the past two months, breaking below an important support in the past week at 1.69%, which represents the 38.2% Fibo retracement of the 1.24%- 1.98% range and the 100D SMA.
  • Czech currently offers one of the lowest 10Y real yields among the EM world at -1.42%.
  • Next CPI print (for May) is coming out on June 10.
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