DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bear Cycle in E-mini S&P Remains in Play

Price Signal Summary – Bear Cycle in E-mini S&P Remains in Play

• A bear cycle in S&P E-minis remains in play and short-term gains are considered corrective. The recent break of support at 4397.75, the Aug 18 low, reinforced bearish conditions and signals scope for a continuation lower. Eurostoxx 50 futures trend conditions remain bearish and the latest bounce is considered corrective. Last week’s extension lower reinforces the current trend condition and key support at 4210.00, the Sep 8 low, has been breached.
• GBPUSD bears remain in the driver’s seat and short-term gains are considered corrective. The extension lower last week strengthens the case for bears and maintains the downtrend price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The USDJPY trend outlook is unchanged and remains bullish. Today’s fresh trend high reinforces current conditions and moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting the market's positive sentiment. AUDUSD remains inside a wide range. The pair has pulled back from Friday’s high and is trading lower today. A continuation would expose 0.6331, the Sep 27 low and bear trigger.
• The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and last week’s climb confirmed a resumption of the trend - resistance at $92.43, Sep 19 high, was cleared. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position. Gold sold off sharply last week and the yellow metal is starting this week’s session on a bearish note. The recent move lower resulted in a break of support at $1901.10 and this was followed by a breach of $1884.9, the Aug 21 low.
• Bund futures traded sharply lower last week before finding some support on Friday. Gains are considered corrective and the trend outlook is bearish. The recent breach of support at 129.72, Aug 14 low and a key bear trigger, reinforced a bearish theme. Gilt futures remain bearish and last Thursday’s sharp sell-off reinforces this condition. The contract has breached 93.36, the Sep 6 low and a key support. This has opened 92.71, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would expose key support at 91.47, the Aug 17 low.

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 1.0772 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.0737 High Sep 20
• RES 2: 1.0664 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.0609 High Sep 26
• PRICE: 1.0570 @ 05:24 BST Oct 2
• SUP 1: 1.0484 Low Jan 6
• SUP 2: 1.0406 50.0% retracement of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.0403 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.0291 Low Nov 30 2022

EURUSD is trading above this week’s low. Short-term gains are considered corrective and the trend condition is bearish. Recent fresh cycle lows maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and moving average studies are in a bear mode position. A resumption of the trend would open 1.0484 next, the Jan 6 low. Initial firm resistance is at 1.0664, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal the start of a correction.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 1.2548 High Nov 11
• RES 3: 1.2508 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.2353/2425 20-day EMA / High Sep 19
• RES 1: 1.2272 High Sep 25
• PRICE: 1.2187 @ 05:38 BST Oct 2
• SUP 1: 1.2111 Low Sep 27
• SUP 2: 1.2075 38.2% retracement of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.2028 Low Mar 16
• SUP 4: 1.2011 Low Mar 15

GBPUSD bears remain in the driver’s seat and short-term gains are considered corrective. The extension lower last week strengthens the case for bears and maintains the downtrend price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in bear-mode position, reflecting current market sentiment. The focus is on 1.2075, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2353, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 0.8768 High May 5
• RES 3: 0.8736 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 downleg
• RES 2: 0.8719 High May 23
• RES 1: 0.8706 High Sep 26 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8672 @ 06:04 BST Oct 2
• SUP 1: 0.8633 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8613/8569 50-day EMA / Low Sep 15 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.8558 Low Sep 11
• SUP 4: 0.8524 Low Sep 06

EURGBP continues to trade below last week’s high. A short-term bull cycle is in play and the cross has managed to remain above firm support at the 20-day EMA, at 0.8633. Recent gains resulted in a breach of resistance at 0.8611, the Aug 30 high. This was followed by a move above trendline resistance drawn from the Feb 3 high - trendline intersects at 0.8668. A clear break of the line would strengthen bullish conditions.

USDJPY TECHS: Approaching 150.00

• RES 4: 151.09 2.764 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 3: 150.40 2.618 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 2: 150.00 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 149.82 Intraday high
• PRICE: 149.73 @ 06:28 BST Oct 2
• SUP 1: 147.97/147.32 20-day EMA / Low Sep 21
• SUP 2: 146.44 Low Sep 12
• SUP 3: 145.98 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 145.91 Low Sep 11

The USDJPY trend outlook is unchanged and remains bullish. Today’s fresh trend high reinforces current conditions and moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting the market's positive sentiment. Attention is on the psychological 150.00 handle. A break of this barrier would reinforce bullish conditions. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 147.97, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Trading Above Support

• RES 4: 160.66 2.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 160.00 Psychological handle
• RES 2: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 158.65/159.76 High Sep 13 / High Aug 30 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 158.06 @ 06:47 BST Oct 2
• SUP 1: 156.59 Low Sep 11 and a key support
• SUP 2: 156.35 Low Aug 8
• SUP 3: 155.54 Low Aug 3
• SUP 4: 154.61 61.8% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 rally

EURJPY moved higher again Friday but the cross continues to trade inside a range. The cross is also trading above the 50-day EMA - at 157.22. A clear breach of it would undermine the uptrend and highlight a possible short-term reversal. This would expose 155.54, Aug 3 low. The bull trigger is unchanged at 159.76, Aug 30 high where a break would resume the uptrend and open 160.66, a Fibonacci projection. First resistance is 158.65, the Sep 13 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Key Resistance Stays Intact

• RES 4: 0.6630 High Aug 2
• RES 3: 0.6616 High Aug 16
• RES 2: 0.6522 High Aug 30 and Sep 1, and the key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6501 High Sep 29
• PRICE: 0.6400 @ 07:03 BST Oct 2
• SUP 1: 0.6331 Low Sep 27 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6287 2.00 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing

AUDUSD remains inside a wide range. The pair has pulled back from Friday’s high and is trading lower today. A continuation would expose 0.6331, the Sep 27 low and bear trigger. A breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 0.6287 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term trend resistance to watch is 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. Clearance of this level would instead be bullish.

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 1.3805 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 1.3704 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 2022 high
• RES 2: 1.3695 High Sep 7 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3621 76.4% of the Sep 7 - 19 bear leg
• PRICE: 1.3569 @ 08:02 BST Oct 2
• SUP 1: 1.3417/3381 Low Sep 29 / 19 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3323 61.8% retracement of the Jul 14 - Sep 7 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.3266 Low Aug 2
• SUP 4: 1.3235 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Sep 7 bull leg

USDCAD traded higher Friday. Despite the latest recovery, the trend outlook is bearish and gains are considered corrective. The recent breach of 1.3490, the Sep 1 low, and the move below the 50-day EMA, reinforced a bearish theme. A resumption of weakness would open 1.3323 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Next resistance to watch is 1.3671, 76.4% of the Sep 7 - 19 bear leg. Key resistance is at 1.3695, the Sep 7 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 130.19 High Sep 22 and key resistance
• RES 3: 129.69 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 129.23 High Sep 27
• RES 1: 128.79 High Sep 29
• PRICE: 128.19 @ 05:00 BST Oct 2
• SUP 1: 127.01 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 126.54 1.764 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing
• SUP 3: 126.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 125.69 2.00 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing

Bund futures traded sharply lower last week before finding some support on Friday. Gains are considered corrective and the trend outlook is bearish. The recent breach of support at 129.72, Aug 14 low and a key bear trigger, reinforced a bearish theme and confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend. Sights are on 126.54 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance is at 130.19, the Sep 22 high.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 116.210 High Sep 18
• RES 3: 116.150 High Sep 22 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 116.035 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 115.790 High Sep 29
• PRICE: 115.570 @ 05:15 BST Oct 2
• SUP 1: 114.880 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 114.817 2.236 proj of the Sep 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
• SUP 3: 115.691 2.382 proj of the Sep 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
• SUP 4: 114.590 2.50 proj of the Sep 8 - 13 - 14 price swing

Bobl futures remain in a downtrend and the contract traded sharply lower last week, before finding support on Friday. Gains are considered corrective. The recent break of 116.00, Aug 15 low and a key support, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and last week’s move lower strengthened the case for bears. The focus is on 114.817, a Fibonacci projection. Firm short-term resistance has been defined at 116.150, the Sep 22 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 105.170 High Sep 14 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 105.115 High Sep 15
• RES 2: 105.029 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 104.995 High Sep 26 / 29
• PRICE: 104.965 @ 05:25 BST Oct 2
• SUP 1: 104.765 Low Sep 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 104.720 2.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 3: 104.645 Low Jul 12 (cont)
• SUP 4: 104.620 Low Jul 11 (cont)

Schatz futures maintain a bearish tone and recent short-term gains appear to be a correction. The recent break of support at 105.130, the Sep 7 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and has maintained the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 104.720, a Fibonacci projection. A key resistance has been defined at 105.170, the Sep 14 high. Initial firm resistance is at 105.029, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 95.63 High Sep 27
• RES 3: 94.84 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 94.74 High Sep 28
• RES 1: 94.37 High Sep 29
• PRICE: 94.16 @ Close Sep 29
• SUP 1: 93.62/92.71 Low Sep 29 / 76.4% of Aug 17 - Sep 20 bull run
• SUP 2: 92.56 Low Aug 23
• SUP 3: 92.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 91.47 Low Aug 17 and key support

Gilt futures remain bearish and last Thursday’s sharp sell-off reinforces this condition. The contract has breached 93.36, the Sep 6 low and a key support. This has opened 92.71, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would expose key support at 91.47, the Aug 17 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 96.71, the Sep 20 high. Initial firm resistance is at 94.74, the Sep 28 high. Gains are considered corrective.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Oversold But Remains In Bear-Mode

• RES 4: 113.84 High Sep 14
• RES 3: 112.52 High Sep 20
• RES 2: 110.61 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 110.52 High Sep 27
• PRICE: 109.73 @ Close Sep 29
• SUP 1: 108.08 Low Sep 28 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 107.08 2.236 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
• SUP 3: 106.40 2.382 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
• SUP 4: 105.85 2.50 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)

A sharp sell-off in BTP futures last Thursday reinforces bearish conditions. However, the contract is in oversold territory and price has recovered from last week’s low. A move higher is considered corrective and would allow the oversold condition to unwind. On the downside, the Sep 28 ‘22 low of 108.13 has been pierced - a major support. A break would open 107.08, a Fibonacci projection on the continuation chart. Resistance is at 110.52, the Sep 27 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 4388.00 High Aug 30 and reversal trigger
• RES 3: 4359.00 High Sep 15 and key resistance
• RES 2: 4295.10 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 4245.60 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 4206.00 @ 05:38 BST Oct 2
• SUP 1: 4128.00 Low Sep 27 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4109.90 1.236 proj of the Aug 10 - 18 - 30 price swing
• SUP 3: 4095.00 Low Mar 28 (cont)
• SUP 4: 4055.40 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull cycle

Eurostoxx 50 futures trend conditions remain bearish and the latest bounce is considered corrective. Last week’s extension lower reinforces the current trend condition and key support at 4210.00, the Sep 8 low, has been breached. The clear break confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started late July and opens 4109.90, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 4245.60, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 4566.00 High Sep 15 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 4514.50 High Sep 18
• RES 2: 4425.05/4467.07 20- and 50-day EMA values
• RES 1: 4399.00 High Sep 22
• PRICE: 4342.25 @ 07:20 BST Oct 2
• SUP 1: 4277.00 Low Sep 27 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4259.00 Low May 31
• SUP 3: 4242.15 1.236 proj of the Jul 27 - Aug 18 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 4194.75 Low May 24

A bear cycle in S&P E-minis remains in play and short-term gains are considered corrective. The recent break of support at 4397.75, the Aug 18 low, reinforced bearish conditions and signals scope for a continuation lower. Sights are on 4242.15, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance is 4467.07, the 50-day EMA. Ahead of the 50-day average is resistance at 4399.00, the Sep 22 high, and 4425.05, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z3) Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: $100.00 - Key psychological round number
• RES 3: $99.73 - 1.236 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
• RES 2: $96.22 - 1.00 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
• RES 1: $95.35 - High Sep 28
• PRICE: $92.29 @ 07:01 BST Oct 2
• SUP 1: $90.41 - Low Sep 26 and key support
• SUP 2: $87.37 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $81.33 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $77.54 - Low Jul 17

The uptrend in Brent futures remains intact and last week’s recovery confirmed a resumption of the uptrend - resistance at $94.57, the Sep 19 high, has been cleared. The move higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and opens 96.22, a Fibonacci projection ahead of the psychological $100.00 handle. Key short-term support is at $90.41, the Sep 26 low. A break would highlight a possible S/T top.

WTI TECHS: (X3) Watching Support

• RES 4: $100.00 - Psychological barrier
• RES 3: $99.42 - 1.382 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: $97.08 - 1.236 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: $95.03 - High Sep 28
• PRICE: $91.06 @ 07:07 BST Oct 2
• SUP 1: $88.19 - Low Sep 26
• SUP 2: $84.19 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $77.32 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $73.40 - Low Jul 17

The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and last week’s climb confirmed a resumption of the trend - resistance at $92.43, Sep 19 high, was cleared. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, reflecting the market's positive sentiment. Sights are on $97.08 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is $88.19, Sep 2 low. A break would highlight a possible S/T top.

GOLD TECHS: Southbound

• RES 4: $1966.0 - High Aug 1
• RES 3: $1953.0 - High Sep 1 and key resistance
• RES 2: $1919.1 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1879.9/1905.5 - High Sep 29 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $1843.0 @ 07:26 BST Oct 2
• SUP 1: $1839.0 - 50.0% of the Sep 28 ‘22 - May 4 bull leg
• SUP 2: $1827.8 - Low Mar 10
• SUP 3: $1804.9- Low Feb 28 and a key resistance
• SUP 4: $1786.1 - 61.8% of the Sep 28 ‘22 - May 4 bull leg

Gold sold off sharply last week and the yellow metal is starting this week’s session on a bearish note. The recent move lower resulted in a break of support at $1901.10 and this was followed by a breach of $1884.9, the Aug 21 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started off the early May high. Attention is $1839.0, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at $1905.5, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $25.014 - High Aug 30
• RES 3: $24.298 - High Sep 4
• RES 2: $23.774 - High Sep 22 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $23.063 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $21.843 @ 08:16 BST Oct 2
• SUP 1: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally
• SUP 2: $21.099 - 50.0% retracement of the Sep ‘22 - Mat ‘23 uptrend
• SUP 3: $20.591 - Low Mar 13
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

Silver trend conditions are bearish and today’s move lower has reinforced this theme. The metal has breached support at $22.111, the Jun 23 low and a bear trigger. This confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started early May. Sights are on $21.375, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, firm resistance has been defined at $23.774, the Sep 22 high. A break of this level is required to signal a short-term reversal.