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Danske See No Change to Norges Bank Policy in August

NORGES BANK
  • They note that this week's meeting is "interim" with no monetary policy report or press conference, only a press release. They write that the Norges Bank took many by surprise in June by suggesting that a first rate hike could come as early as late 2022, having only five weeks earlier signalled unchanged rates until at least the end of 2023.
  • Danske write that the recovery in economic activity has continued and growth in consumer spending has been particularly strong, while unemployment has fallen largely as expected and GDP growth in May was possibly slightly short of expectations.
  • Economic and financial developments would suggest that the central bank could be marginally more aggressive in its message than in June. However, the upward trend in coronavirus cases in recent weeks in Norway and elsewhere means that the downside risk will probably be considered to have increased since then. They believe this points to no change from Norges Bank.
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