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Data Analysis Supports Trump's 2024 Polling Lead Over Biden

US

A major new data analysis from Stack Data Strategy has found that former President Donald Trump would defeat President Biden in the electoral college by 292 votes to 246, "if a presidential election were held today."

  • The analysis finds that, “Biden is still on course to win the popular vote by 49% to 48%,” and “despite Trump’s lead, the race in the battleground states is extremely close, with four states forecast to be won by less than 2% of the vote, and Nevada and Michigan projected to be won by Biden.”
  • Stack Data Strategy notes: “Amid calls from senior Democrats for Biden to step down as prospective nominee, the poll reveals Trump would also beat potential candidates VP Kamala Harris and Governor Gavin Newsom.”
  • Joe Bedell, Head of Stack Data Strategy in North America writes: “Our research is the largest exercise of its kind so far this cycle and we can confidently say that as things currently stand, if Donald Trump is selected as the Republican candidate, he is likely to win. Despite recent calls for change, our polling also shows that neither party would benefit from a change in candidate, President Trump would beat both of Biden’s possible replacements by an even greater margin.”

Figure 1: % of Voters Who Say They are Better off Since Biden Became President

Source: Stack Data Strategy

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