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DBS On India Budget

INDIA

DBS is constructive on the India budget, and has raised its 2024 FY India GDP forecast, see below for more details.

DBS: The FY25 interim Budget delivered on three themes: The Budget delivered on three aspects, a) sticking with the fiscal consolidation path; b) emphasis on capex to improve the quality of the expenditure mix; c) refrained from outright populism. The Budget speech assumed political continuity for the incumbent government, helping to keep the reform and recovery agenda on track.

  • The FY25 fiscal deficit is expected to narrow to 5.1% of GDP from a revised - 5.8% in the current year. Tax buoyancy is assumed at conservative levels. Bond borrowings will be lowered in FY25, good news for the private sector.
  • The faster pace of fiscal consolidation adds to improving macro indicators.
  • Implications for forecasts: With the non-inflationary Budget behind them, the RBI will be focused on domestic inflation and global developments.
  • We raise our FY24 GDP growth forecast to 7.1% yoy.
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