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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessDBS See Next RBI Decision as Close Call
DBS write on yesterday's RBI decision:
- Policymakers were non-committal on liquidity support despite upcoming TLTROs/ LTRO maturities, as a likely squeeze is expected to be offset by a return in FX flows and government spending. While durable injections are unlikely, a deficit balance might attract short-term relief by way of VRR repo operations.
- While Wed’s remarks hurt hopes for a pause in early-April, the direction has turned more data-dependent. Accounting for a lag in policy action, transmission and pass through to the real economy, the next rate decision will be a close call. With quarterly inflation likely to undershoot the official projection in the quarter ahead, our baseline view is for the MPC to lean towards a pause in April.
- On fiscal, they write that the FY24 Budget was neutral for monetary policy, in terms of near-term inflation and macro stability. Depending on demand-supply dynamics in the debt market next year, the central bank might participate to backstop bonds in case of volatile yield moves. DBS' forecasts lean towards a rise in risk-free 2Y and 10Y yields in the year ahead.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.