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Debt Limit Talks, Fedspeak, 3Y Supply & Corporate Issuance All Ahead

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have steadily rallied with major benchmark yields running 2.5-3bps richer and no sign of spillover from hawkish ECB commentary. It sees 2Y yields pull back lower after yesterday’s push above 4% in UK holiday-thinned trade for the first time since last week’s JOLTS miss.
  • Fed Funds implied rates see last week’s hike as the last of the cycle with 70bp of cuts to year-end, trimmed from 85bps before Friday’s payrolls.
  • With CPI tomorrow lurking on the horizon, focus today is on Biden’s meeting with congressional leaders, Fedspeak from high-ranking FOMC members and 3Y supply.
  • 2YY -2.5bp at 3.976%, 5YY -2.9bp at 3.462%, 10YY -2.3bp at 3.484%, 30YY -2.3bp at 3.800%
  • TYM3 trades 8 ticks higher at 115-13+ on subdued volumes of 210k. It’s off support at yesterday’s low of 115-05 but with some way to resistance at 116-12 (May 5 high)
  • Debt limit: US President Biden, House Speaker McCarthy to hold debt limit talks -- no set time but hear Biden will be meeting with congressional leaders around 1600ET.
  • Fedspeak: Gov (and nominated Vice Chair) Jefferson at 0830ET, NY Fed’s Williams (1205ET).
  • Data: Nothing left on the slate. NFIB saw a smaller than expected decline from 90.1 to 89.0 (cons 89.7) in April.
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $40B 3Y Note auction (91282CHB0) – 1300ET. On issuance more broadly, there is also a heavy corporate slate, headlined by an Apple multi-parter.
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