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December IPCA Inflation Due At 1200GMT/0700ET

BRAZIL
  • The median surveyed estimate sees headline inflation rising 0.45% M/m in December, bringing the annual headline rate down to 5.60% from 5.90% a month ago.
    • Food prices likely accelerated from the mid-December print, while transportation costs, which had been rising since the end of October, may have fallen slightly in the month.
    • Analysts are expecting core inflation to sit in the 0.4%-0.55% M/m range, with diffusion — the share of items seeing a price gain in the month — nearing 70%. Those levels are significantly better than six months earlier, but still suggest above-target inflation ahead.
  • The central bank is expected to have to publish an open letter explaining why it missed the inflation target for a second consecutive year. After the 2021 miss, the BCB blamed currency weakness, commodity prices, disruptions to the global supply chain and the energy shock from insufficient rainfall. Pressure from reopening on services inflation may be added this time around.
    • The next Copom decision is due on February 01, where the board are very much expected to keep the Selic rate unchanged at 13.75%, having concluded the tightening cycle in August 2022.
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