Free Trial

Democrat Candidate Ahead In Bellwether New York Special Election


A new survey from Siena College has found that Democrat candidate Tom Suozzi holds a slim 4-point advantage over Republican candidate Mazi Pilip in the race to fill the seat of expelled former House Rep George Santos.

  • The special election will take place on February 13 and will provide the first hard electoral data ahead of November’s general election. In particular, how the electorate responds to a GOP campaign on immigration may foreshadow how important the issue will be in swing states and districts.
  • Don Levy at Siena College notes: “Suozzi is seen by voters as likely to do a better job on protecting democracy, addressing the issue of abortion, determining aid to Ukraine and making Congress work more effectively while Pilip is viewed as better on addressing the influx of migrants and by a slim margin on establishing American policy towards the Israel-Hamas war.”
  • Levy continues: “Although these voters are special election voters – the most likely of likely voters – it is noteworthy that despite Suozzi holding a 4-point edge over Pilip, voters say that if they could vote in the 2024 Presidential election today, they give former President Donald Trump a 5-point advantage over President Joe Biden. Both leading presidential candidates are seen negatively by voters, Trump’s numbers are 15 points negative while Biden’s are 18 points negative.”

Figure 2: New York Third Congressional District Special Election

Source: News Day/Siena College

To read the full story



MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.