Democrat Senate Candidates Outperforming Harris

Split Ticket has published new polling averages for the key Senate races of the cycle, showing that Democrat candidates are “broadly outrunning Harris” in presidential election swing states.

• Split Ticket: “…it is worth noting that Democrats need to sweep most of the competitive races to retain control of the chamber, even if a Vice President Tim Walz could serve as tiebreaker. If Trump wins, the polls suggest either Florida or Texas would decide Senate control (with Democrats headed for an assured loss in West Virginia, they would need to flip a Republican seat to hold on to 51 votes). If Harris wins, our aggregates suggest the battle for Senate would come down to Montana, the closest race in our averages.”
• The Split Ticket average should be approached with some caution, particularly in Montana - the crucial race to determine control of the chamber - as there has been limited high-quality polling in the state.
• Sabato's Crystal Ball notes: "In canvassing our contacts from both sides over the past week or so, we came to the conclusion that [Republican candidate Tim] Sheehy likely is ahead, although not necessarily by much."

Figure 1: Senate Polling Tracker