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Deutsche Bank Raise Growth Forecast, Expect BanRep Easing In March 2024

COLOMBIA
  • Deutsche Bank continue to see a soft rhythm of economic activity. On the one hand, payback from unsustainable output levels, elevated inflation, relatively subdued consumer confidence, contracting real credit growth amid tight monetary conditions, and the withdrawal of the fiscal impulse triggered by the response to Covid should continue to constrain activity. On the other hand, a relatively tight labor market, the maintenance of fiscal transfers above pre-Covid levels, an incipient rise in business confidence over the economic outlook, and still high terms-of-trade by historical standards may continue to cushion this raft of headwinds.
  • The statistical carryover stands at around 1.5% should output remain steady at the average observed in June-August (or the August level). Deutsche Bank now pencil in the final growth figure for the year at 1.4% (vs previous forecast of 1% for the year).
  • While the ongoing downturn may have led the economy to operate below potential, DB remain of the view that there’s no leeway yet for rate cuts given the elevated levels of inflation. Persistent slack in the economy is required to undergird the continued disinflationary process, among other macroeconomic corrections. DB continue to expect the initiation of an easing cycle in March 2024.
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