MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, February 3

MNI BRIEF: Professional Forecasters Up Inflation Outlook: ECB

MNI BRIEF: China To Fully Reopen Borders With HK and Macau

MNI DATA FORECASTS: RBA, Riksbank In Focus

MNI: US ISM JAN SERVICES COMPOSITE INDEX 55.2

RBA Watch

(RPT)MNI INTERVIEW: BOC In One And Done Zone - Chamber

Rpt- MNI INTERVIEW: BOC Losses May Dent Inflation Fight- Tombe

MNI BRIEF: EU Sees Statement After UK-EU Talks This Afternoon

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial
USDCAD TECHS

Key Support Remains Exposed

AUDUSD TECHS

Pullback Extends, But Still Looks Corrective in Nature

US TSYS

FED Remains in Play Post-NFP/ISM Data

US TSYS

Implied Vol Buoyed Post-NFP/ISM, Real Vol Delivered

US

President Biden To Conclude Infrastructure Tour In Philadelphia

US STOCKS

Late Equity Roundup: Early Support Evaporates Ahead Weekend

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access
Trending Top 5
Market News Topics

Deutsche: Lower CPI Forecasts On Potential Rent Peak, Softer Goods

US
HomepageBulletMarketsFixed Income NewsForeign Exchange NewsUS

Deutsche's inflation forecasts have been lowered on the back of the October inflation print, and they may not be the last analyst to do so:

  • Deutsche forecasts end-2022 Q4/Q4 core CPI of 6.1% (down 0.3ppt), 2023 at 3.6% (also down 0.3ppt), and 2024 unch at 2.6%.
  • Their core PCE forecasts have fallen by a similar amount, to 4.7% (in line w consensus), 3.2% (vs 2.7% consensus), and 2.2% respectively. These forecasts incorporate a recession in H2 2023.
  • Re the downgrade, their analysts cite a potential peak in M/M rents with private estimates of asking rents softening, in addition to broader goods deflationary pressures.
  • One highlight of October's report was the outliers: "the skew of the outliers within core was still to the upside, with the five largest outliers adding almost 40bps to the core print. However, in contrast to previous months, there were meaningful downside outliers" including health insurance and used autos.
  • The downside miss will allow the Fed to follow through on their downshift to a 50bp hike in December. Deutsche's analysts still expect a terminal Fed funds rate of 4.75-5.00% reached in March 2023 (25bps in Feb and Mar).
186 words

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to

MarketNews.com

MNI is the leading provider

of news and intelligence specifically for the Global Foreign Exchange and Fixed Income Markets, providing timely, relevant, and critical insight for market professionals and those who want to make informed investment decisions. We offer not simply news, but news analysis, linking breaking news to the effects on capital markets. Our exclusive information and intelligence moves markets.

Our credibility

for delivering mission-critical information has been built over three decades. The quality and experience of MNI's team of analysts and reporters across America, Asia and Europe truly sets us apart. Our Markets team includes former fixed-income specialists, currency traders, economists and strategists, who are able to combine expertise on macro economics, financial markets, and political risk to give a comprehensive and holistic insight on global markets.

Deutsche's inflation forecasts have been lowered on the back of the October inflation print, and they may not be the last analyst to do so:

  • Deutsche forecasts end-2022 Q4/Q4 core CPI of 6.1% (down 0.3ppt), 2023 at 3.6% (also down 0.3ppt), and 2024 unch at 2.6%.
  • Their core PCE forecasts have fallen by a similar amount, to 4.7% (in line w consensus), 3.2% (vs 2.7% consensus), and 2.2% respectively. These forecasts incorporate a recession in H2 2023.
  • Re the downgrade, their analysts cite a potential peak in M/M rents with private estimates of asking rents softening, in addition to broader goods deflationary pressures.
  • One highlight of October's report was the outliers: "the skew of the outliers within core was still to the upside, with the five largest outliers adding almost 40bps to the core print. However, in contrast to previous months, there were meaningful downside outliers" including health insurance and used autos.
  • The downside miss will allow the Fed to follow through on their downshift to a 50bp hike in December. Deutsche's analysts still expect a terminal Fed funds rate of 4.75-5.00% reached in March 2023 (25bps in Feb and Mar).