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Deutsche Now Sees 50bp Hike In March, 250bp This Cycle

FED

Deutsche now sees the Fed hiking 50bp in March, following the January CPI print - they see 25bp hikes in 5 2022 meetings after that (May, June, July, Sep, Dec), for a total of 175bp in Fed funds increases this year.

  • They have kept their call for 3 hikes in 2023 (Mar, Jun, Sep), so 250bps of total hikes and with a terminal rate of 2.6%.
  • (Prior to today, they'd seen 5 25bp hikes in 2022, with 3 in 2023, for a terminal rate of 2.1%).
  • Re going 50bp in March: "risk management likely requires a more aggressive approach to the initial tightening. Moreover, with the market pricing it around a 50% probability – a number we anticipate will go up if Fed officials signal a greater possibility of this type of move – the Fed will not want to surprise in a dovish direction."
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