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Deutsche points out that the Fed has delivered something not seen since Paul Volcker ran the institution: with rate hikes and hawkish forward guidance, Deutsche's shadow policy rate has risen by 2.8 percentage points over the past 6 months, the most since 1981.
- "While extreme, the movements in our shadow rate are consistent with a variety of data points, including the current yield curve, peak fed funds rate pricing from last cycle, and the sharp tightening of financial conditions in recent weeks."
- They see the Fed following through on tightening and eventually causing a recession: "our shadow rate ... suggests that the Fed’s actions have already gone a long way in better positioning monetary policy to respond to the economic outlook."
6 month change in DB "shadow rate"Source: Deutsche Bank
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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