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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION
Although June's CPI readings came in close to their above-consensus estimates (which had been +0.64% M/M core, +1.33% M/M headline), Deutsche noted two areas which deviated from their expectations: airfares (which declined 1.8%), and rents (rent of primary residences rose the fastest since 1986, OER since 1990).
- The rent pressure was particularly noteworthy, especially as "given the way that the BLS calculates these inflation rates, the monthly changes in rents tend to be particularly sticky."
- On that basis, Deutsche has raised its inflation forecasts: now seeing core CPI at 6.2% Y/Y at end-2022 (Q4/Q4; up by 0.2pp vs prior estimates); 3.9% in 2023 (+0.1pp), with the path resulting in a slight downgrade for 2024 to 2.7% (-0.1pp).
Source: Deutsche
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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